Mr. Huang Gaocheng, President of Top Gear, said in a recent exclusive interview, “I think there is an opportunity for the penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks to reach 50% in the next three years, but the road to realization is full of challenges.”
In 2025, the market for new energy heavy-duty trucks in China will witness explosive growth. From January to August, sales reached 97,800 units, with a penetration rate exceeding 22% and a year-on-year growth rate as high as 185%. Data shows that the penetration rate of new energy heavy-duty trucks was 0.2% in 2020, rose to 5.6% in 2023, and reached 13.6% for the whole year of 2024.
The growth of the industry has also brought opportunities to Top Gear. Mr. Huang disclosed that “The overall development of new energy heavy-duty trucks in 2025 will be better than expected. The sales performance of Top Gear has also been rising steadily. The overall delivery volume in the first half of the year has already exceeded that of the whole of last year. Especially in the fourth quarter, I think there will still be new peaks. Under the green wave, the new energy transformation of heavy-duty trucks is no longer whether it will arrive or not, but at what speed.”
Up to now, Top Gear has supplied products to nearly 30 new energy heavy-duty truck enterprises. All the trucks equipped with Top Gear powertrains have been operating in over 300 cities in China, with a cumulative operating mileage of over 1.5 billion kilometers and the longest operating mileage of a single truck exceeding 600,000 kilometers.
Some suggest that electric drive axles will account for over 90% of new energy heavy-duty trucks in the future, replacing central drive axles.
What is Top Gear’s comment on this prediction?
Mr. Huang has a different viewpoint: “I believe that electric drive axles and central drive axles will coexist for a long time, rather than one replacing the other.”
He analyzed that electric drive axle technology is still in its relatively early stages. “Without the accumulation of high-volume, long-mileage operating experience, the stability of electric drive axle products remains to be observed.”
Mr. Huang stated, “From a fundamental perspective, new energy heavy-duty truck users ultimately seek product reliability and economic efficiency. Central drive axles have been proven for many years, with at least 3-5 years of operational experience, and have earned user recognition for their performance and stability.”
The difference between electric drive axles and central drive axles is that they are more compact, more integrated, and offer greater efficiency advantages. Mr. Huang believes that “if electric drive axle products can be quickly refined and undergo longer market testing, they will have significant potential for development. However, these two products are not mutually exclusive; furthermore, it comes down to user preference based on performance, stability, and affordability.”
For this reason, Mr. Huang believes that the key competitive advantages in the future new energy heavy-duty truck powertrain market will be reliability, affordability, and adaptability. He revealed that Top Gear had been focusing on both products: “We have also developed numerous iterations of electric drive axle products, conducting research and development from a market perspective. We will launch the most competitive and market-demanding products.”